Big Numbers

Nebraska is leading all states in ACRE signups with (drumroll please) 372!

As far as I know Chase and Hayes counties haven't had any. We're only 3 weeks from the signup deadline.

Audible Groan

DTN provided this comforting commentary this morning. I actually groaned aloud when I read it.

"Corn: The market continues to be weighed down by bearish underlying fundamentals limiting the scope of any rally. If weather remains on its non-threatening course, yields could reach 2004 levels near 160 bpa, well above USDA's last estimate for 153.4 bpa and making the situation even more bearish."

Familiar with ACRE

DTN is basically posting a new article every day. In my mind, this continues to solidify the confusion and reason that most producers are going proceed with a 'wait and see' attitude.

http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=/free/news/template1&paneContentId=5&paneParentId=70104&product=/ag/news/topstories&vendorReference=0353b2fa-34a2-481b-912d-1cb46058ad3a

How confident are you in guessing commodity prices 12 months from today?

More ACRE...

Another joking ACRE article. Think there may be some confusion?

One producer within this article is not going to sign up for the for one basic reason.
-Assumptions
He feels that so many assumptions have been made (price, yield, state, national) that the resulting data is practically useless.

Other producers think its a no brainer.

http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/

Marketing Article - Farm Futures

I find marketing fascinating. It poses an impossible challenge. Hindsight is 20/20 yet the path directly in front of you is dark as night. In reading market commentaries, I begin to get the distinct impression that nobody has much more than the slightest clue what the future holds.

Marketing is the greatest challenge a producer must face.

I'm not a marketing expert, nor do I pretend to be. I recognize the importance of an effective marketing plan and understand the integral role that crop insurance plays in a marketing plan and risk management. In other words, don't be surprised if a lot of the content posted on this blog concerns marketing.)

The following commentary is on an article from the July/August 2009 issue of 'Farm Futures' written by Bryce Knorr entitled 'Selective Service' discussing the most profitable producers. Here is the overview.

• Have a written marketing plan
• Selective hedging - Willing to get in and out of trades as market warrants. (Oh by the way, this may be an impossible strategy and blurs the line between hedging and speculating.)
• Basic Strategy #1: Seasonal Rallies - Backbone of many marketing plans
• Basic Strategy #2: Be Trendy - Trend lines are simple, timing is difficult.
• Basic Strategy #3: Fundamentals - #3 can throw #1 and #2 out the window.

Conclusion: Active trading is for talented, committed producers with capital.

(By the way, these three strategies along with a talented, capitalized, committed producer do not ensure success. Good luck.)

ACRE

I was in the FSA office a couple of days ago pulling some maps for a customer and there was a line of producers waiting to speak with the 'FSA expert' about the ACRE program. The August 14 deadline is quickly approaching. Here are some bullet points:

• Direct payments reduced 20% & marketing assistance loans reduced 30%.
• Once a farm (defined by FSA farm #) is signed up, it's married to ACRE until 2012
• ACRE Guarantee is 90% of the 5 year state benchmark yield times the 2 year average guarantee price
• Benchmark yield - Average compiled by National Agricultural Statistical Service for each state
• Triggers (Both must be met) 1. State revenue drops below ACRE guarantee. 2. Actual revenue drops below ACRE guarantee